Blogging Pitfalls?

Upset on how much money I’ve lost on WoW’s AH in enchanting mats since  patch 3.08, I felt it necessary, no…  my duty, to author a blog post on the dangerous ingame economic waters Blizzard is treading. How reduced prices on all trade skill professions will just lead to faster inflation and further degeneration of the notion as professions as a viable income.

So last night I began writing, and revising my argument. I was nearly complete and satisfied with the results when I reread, and for whatever reason, it felt off but I couldn’t place my finger on it.

With this strange feeling of uneasiness in tow, I decided to hold off publishing it until the next morning – I’m very thankful I did. The following is the complete post; you don’t have to read through it to get my point but it does allow you to clearly see my good  intentions and where the obvious holes in my argument would of been.

Daily Thought – WoW – Patch 3.08, the continuation of inflation?

With the release of patch 3.08, one has to ask “what the hell is Blizzard thinking?”.

The patch brought much needed changes to many classes, Death Knights saw base mitigation and threat increases, druids saw an overhaul of druid weapons, healing throughput was generally nerfed (CoH and Nourish CD added) and a host of classes saw their burst and sustained damage brought “in-line” with where Blizzard thinks they should be. Overall a fairly good patch until you reach trade professions.

While initially one may look at the changes and think honestly just quality of life improvements (increased drop rates of dust, one tap mining, across the board nerf of needed mats for all professions), when put in scope of the game moving forward – this can only mean rising inflation. Trade skills drive the market and in mmo’s offer a legitimate output of money, but more so the stimulate exchange of money between players.

This combined with repair bills and skill training, are the three highest ways to lower the amount of in-game money existing on a server. In contrast, quests and looting (both gold and items) are the two highest means of introducing money to the server.

Now there are two possibilities, 1) Blizzard expects a larger portion of the population to seek these high level enchants and items now that their crafting prices have been dramatically reduced, thus stimulating the economy positively. The second possibility is more in-line with what I expect,

2) a large portion of the population of people who will now buy the new high level items are the same people who would of bought them anyway at the higher price.

This will create a surplus as the demand will be much lower than the supply (since it stayed the same), forcing the price (and margin) to fall out from under them.

The price of enchanting dust will drop below the average price of it’s equivalent armor item, meaning enchanters no longer have an advantage over non-enchanters since the dust can be easily bought off the AH at cost. The same will go for crafted metals, leather and cloth reducing the incentive to level trade skills in general. Fewer will level trade skills over the long run, and less money will be exiting the economy as a result, causing inflation.

I may be proven wrong in the long run as more hit 80 and get in to raiding, but for the short term expect to see vastly discounted prices on raw items, it may even be a good idea to invest in a few for the long run until demand increases since the value of gold greatly diminishes at  a resounding rate. It’s best if you don’t want too much of it tied up in your bank at any one time.

Obvious holes in how mmorpg economics work aside, last night I thought it was a legitimate argument. I thought it would b a good overall post with a fair heed of warning. But because I waited on publishing it I saved myself the trouble of one or two The Aphelion fanboys (this web page has people who read it?) riping me a new one on how I don’t understand wowenomics.

My lesson? Always always always reread your blog posts the next morning, or at least later that day. I often wondered how some bloggers used such inane logic in their posts sometimes – now I have at least one reason. 

-D^t

(P.S. inflation is a major problem of wow’s economy, but 3.08 did nothing to further expedite it)

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